Conventional economists regard it as an "anomaly"

 

They call the time from 1982 until the mid-2000's the Great Moderation and were convinced by the mid-2000's that there would never be a recession again (which is their goal).  That is why they are pushing so hard since then.

 

I, on the other hand, found out about the law against recessions (from the internet) in the summer of 2001.  When I found out about it, I immediately patched it mentally into what I already knew about the Kondratieff wave and made the following prediction (to myself) -

 

If the Fed saves the economy in the early 2000's, which they did, then contrary to the biggest pessimists, there will be no downturn before 2007.  However, sometime between 2007-2010, there will be a MAJOR stock market AND economic downturn (unlike in the early 2000's, when there was a major stock market downturn, but no major economic downturn, at least not a truly major one).  In reality, the downturn hit a little shy of the middle of my expected time-frame - when the history of the United States indicated that it was most likely to hit.

 

So, I predicted the downturn of 2008-2009 more than 7 years in advance, including the approximate timing.

 

Who has the right model?

 

In my opinion, my position is called facing reality, rather than doing wishful thinking.

 

Long-term Elliott waves indicate that we are due for the worst downturn in American history.  Worse than the depression of the 1930's.