Blue Flower

About the recession of 2008/2009

Conventional economists regard it as an "anomaly"
They call the time from 1982 until the mid-2000's the Great Moderation and were convinced by the mid-2000's that there would never be a recession again (which is their goal).  That is why they are pushing so hard since then.
I, on the other hand, found out about the law against recessions (from the internet) in the summer of 2001.  When I found out about it, I immediately patched it mentally into what I already knew about the Kondratieff wave and made the following prediction (to myself) -
If the Fed saves the economy in the early 2000's, which they did, then contrary to the biggest pessimists, there will be no downturn before 2007.  However, sometime between 2007-2010, there will be a MAJOR stock market AND economic downturn (unlike in the early 2000's, when there was a major stock market downturn, but no major economic downturn, at least not a truly major one).  In reality, the downturn hit a little shy of the middle of my expected time-frame - when the history of the United States indicated that it was most likely to hit.
SoI predicted the downturn of 2008-2009 more than 7 years in advance, including the approximate timing.
Who has the right model?
In my opinion, my position is called facing reality, rather than doing wishful thinking.
Long-term Elliott waves indicate that we are due for the worst downturn in American history.  Worse than the depression of the 1930's.
The Kondratieff wave can't be used to measure this because it (only) lasts for decades.
What the central bank is (actually) doing is ensuring that the next real downturn will (definitely!) live up to Elliott wave expectations.
The imbalances will simply get big enough that they will (utterly, totally, and completely) overwhelm the system.
I think that the next downturn will get bad enough that the continued existence of the United States and the dollar is in doubt.
And, yes, Europe will be in big trouble, too.
Most likely, at least most of the rest of the world will be, too.