Blue Flower

Headline -
 
"Record $414 billion of new Treasury debt issuance poses supply test for shellshocked bond buyers"
 
This is for the new month, the month of March.
 
And this does not even include debt issuance, of government debt, to fund President Biden's stimulus proposal (every penny of which will be borrowed money).
 
That is another $1.9 trillion.
 
The stimulus that happened under President Trump in spring 2020, more than $2 trillion, was also all borrowed money, and was added to the national debt in just a couple of months.
 
But such numbers are not included in the number above (at all, even a penny of it).
 
There is no long-term correlation between bonds and stocks.  It depends on circumstances.
 
But one correlation in regard to what I have noted is set in stone -
 
Pour more supply, at an ever-faster rate, on a developing exponential, and you will guarantee, all the more, that the exponential will happen.  That is to say, that the market will (eventually) go vertical.  For a bond market, that is not a good thing (when it happens, the market will lose all credibility).
 
(There is an exponential developing in the bond market.)
 
In fact, in the current/developing circumstances, I expect both the bond market and the stock market to crash (eventually).
 
(And, yes, this has happened before, though not in modern times.)